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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
laufend1 h bis mehrere Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-121-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation