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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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