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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
laufend15-60 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-122-92-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
EstimationEffortAgile
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing