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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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