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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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