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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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