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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationForecastingFlow |
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