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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionSensemaking | SensemakingDecisionRationale |
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