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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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