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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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