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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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