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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Agile Planning Poker |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 2-5 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
