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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |
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