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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Bucket System |  Agile Planning Poker |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 2-5 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam |
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