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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  DevOps Blameless Postmortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Postmortem Doc, Action Items, Timeline | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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