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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-20 min daily | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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