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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
