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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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