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| Criterion |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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