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Criterion
Paper illustration for Intervention Mapping.
Systems Thinking
Intervention Mapping
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-5 Tage15-45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-121-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation PlanPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ChangeSystems thinkingCapability
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud