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Criterion
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
15-60 min20–45 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-9Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortAgile
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test