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Criterion
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-60 min1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-96-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortAgile
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test