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Criterion
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
Halber Tag45-90 min20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
5-202-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Simulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
ResilienceOperationsIncident
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis