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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-10 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationEffortRisk |
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