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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |
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