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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk |
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