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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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