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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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