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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight |
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