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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight |
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