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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |
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