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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |
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