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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Decision Matrix |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When several options collide with several criteria, comparison quickly becomes subjective. A Decision Matrix makes the trade-off visible and brings weighting, criteria, and options into a shared logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Decision Matrix, Scoring Rationale, Selected Option | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | DecisionCriteriaScoringTradeoffs | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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