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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Change Analysis |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |
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