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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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