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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | FlowMeasurementConstraints | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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