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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Root causeSafetyIncident | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |
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