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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |
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