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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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