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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingDecisionRationale | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality |
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