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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingDecisionRationale | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |
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