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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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