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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 15-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | KnowledgeMappingRisk |
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