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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ChangeDecisionStrategy |
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