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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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