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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 15-60 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-9 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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