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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 5-20 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-20 | 3-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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