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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighLow
Timedifferent
2-4 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of the Force Field Analysis working structure.
Decision Making
Force Field Analysis