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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-5 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test