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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsOpportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning LogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB